The Nigerian Naira is projected to continue facing pressure against the US dollar throughout 2026, according to Yemi Kale, Senior Economist at the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). Kale gave the outlook during the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 event, citing persistent challenges in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
Eko Hot News reports that Kale highlighted structural issues, inflation trends, volatile global oil prices, and inconsistent FX inflows as key factors likely to keep the Naira under pressure. Analysts suggest these factors may limit sharp appreciation and maintain uncertainty in currency trading.
Under a baseline forecast, the Naira is expected to trade around ₦1,313 to the dollar by mid-2026 and approximately ₦1,340 per dollar by year-end, assuming moderate improvements in FX reserves and oil export earnings. This projection highlights ongoing macroeconomic vulnerabilities that affect currency stability.
In a more positive scenario, the Naira could strengthen to between ₦1,200 and ₦1,300 per dollar if the government implements successful reforms, diversifies export revenues, and improves investor confidence. Experts emphasised that consistent policies and stronger FX liquidity are critical for any meaningful stabilisation.
Eko Hot News notes that policymakers are urged to boost non-oil exports and reduce overreliance on crude oil earnings. Economists believe that fiscal discipline, enhanced reserve buffers, and clear FX policy will be essential to mitigate volatility and support long-term stability.
The ongoing pressure on the Naira also underscores the importance of addressing high import demand and limited hard currency supply, which continue to challenge Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment. Investors and stakeholders are advised to closely monitor currency trends as part of economic planning for 2026.
Overall, while there is potential for moderate improvement, the Naira is expected to remain under stress against the dollar, highlighting the need for coordinated economic reforms and prudent financial management.
